We are approximately 34 hours away indigenous the residential launch ofGuardians the the Galaxy Vol. 2. The James Gunn sequel will open in a grasp of significant territories end the next few days, including North America, China and Russia. However for the moment, let"s look in ~ the domestic number.

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I was amused end the last couple of days the town hall Fandango trumpet thatGuardians 2had better advance ticket presales thanAvengers: period of Ultron. First, it was still offering fewer presales thanCaptain America: civil War andBatman v Superman: Dawn that Justice, two movies that opened below the $191 million opening weekend forAvengers 2. Second, if you recall, the $191m Fri-Sun launch, the second biggest ever before at the time, put Marvel ~ above the defense and also led come a entirety bunch the think pieces about superhero tiredness and/or Marvel"s theme wearing slim for audiences about the world. Together amusing together that to be at the moment (and specifically in retrospect), that is worth mentioning what would certainly be one "acceptable" start forGuardians that the Galaxy Vol. 2.

First, us really should expect a enlarge debut than the first film"s $94.3 million debut weekend from earlier in august of 2014. Yes, lot of of sequels (Sherlock Holmes: A game of Shadows,Think prefer A man Too,Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials) have actually opened lower than their instant predecessors the late, but the MCU is (save forAge the Ultron) the exception to that existing rule.

Iron guy 3($174 million)opened 36% enlarge thanIron guy 2($128m) which opened 25% larger thanIron Man($102m).Captain America: civil War($179m) opened 88% better thanCaptain America: The Winter Soldier($95m) which opened 46% better thanCaptain America($65m).And yeah, I"m guessingThor: Ragnarokwill debut better thanThor: The Dark World($85m),which opened30% higher than the $65m debut forThor. But, for what it"s worth,Guardians" very first film snagged an opening weekend ~ above par v Steve Rogers" second film and also around $9m much more than Thor"s very first sequel. For this reason the bigger you start, the less you can theoretically rise.

WhileCivil Wararguably played likeAvengers 2.5(with buzzy debuts for black Panther and Spider-Man) andIron male 3was basicallyAvengers 1.5(while walk out as 3D uneven its 2D predecessors),Guardians the the Galaxy Vol. 2has the benefit of the summer kick-off day that provided Marvel its four finest openings and totals but very little in the method ofAvengersconnections. So, if us assume thatGuardians 2gets a goodwill boost fromGuardians 1but no real benefit for opening in the might kick-off date, then us shouldn"t be usingCivil WarorIron man 3as examples. Otherwise, give it a $175 million debut weekend and also call that a day. And also that may well happen, but what room the various other comparisons?

Well, the proverbial worst-case scenario is a 25%-30% bump akin toIron man 2andThor: The Dark World, a number that it s okay this film to $117-$123 million for the weekend. However sinceGuardians 2has far better reviews than those films and also was much more liked the first time roughly thanThor, I"d argue that somewhere in the selection of 36% come 46% may be a reality worst-case scenario. And, if that happens, we"re looking at a debut between $127m and also $138m, i beg your pardon is ~ above the short side of reality guestimates. A jump akin toX2: X-Men United($85m/$54m = 57%) provides this brand-new film a $149m debut weekend.

So, together you can see, the rather pie-in-the-sky $160-$175 million suspect (which would certainly be akin to a Bourne Supremacy-level jump)are possible but amount come a debut wherein the designated MCU movie the happens to open up in that at an early stage May slot provides over/under $175m together a issue of course. That might be the case, yet we don"t understand yet because every MCU kick-off movie because 2012 had actually an clear Avengers/Tony Starkconnection.So, with all of that being said, what is the bar for success?

With the caveat that a leggier run thanIron guy 3,Avengers: period of UltronandCaptain America: civil Warwould typical a smaller sized debut weekend would be okay, let"s placed the arbitrary bar in ~ $133 million. Why that number? Well, that puts it previous the $128m debut ofMan the Steel(counting Thursday previews) and also $132m Fri-Sun debut that Deadpoolto do it the greatest launch ever, not adjusted for inflation, for a comic book superhero movie the doesn"t involve Batman, Spider-Man or stole Man. And also since you can make the instance thatGuardians the the Galaxyis the most renowned superhero franchise that doesn"t involve those folks, climate that would be an undisputed win. Heck, if it it s okay over $139m, it"ll be the greatest such launch even accountancy for inflation.

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So, yeah, that"s where we are with simply one day-and-change to go before the huge launch. Yet I"m pretty certain that the Thursday preview number is going to be greater than the first film"s $11 million launch. Perhaps I can run those numbers for tomorrow.


I"ve learned the movie industry, both academically and informally, and also with an emphasis in box office analysis, for practically 30 years. I have broadly written around all of said subjects because that the critical 13 years. My outlets because that film criticism, box office commentary, and film-skewing scholarship have had The Huffington Post, Salon, and Film Threat. Monitor me in ~