This is among those sentences that you will certainly hear a lot in between now and also Nov. 8, however it"s quiet remarkable. Precise never, indigenous Abraham Lincoln to George W. Bush, has actually an elected Republican president no won Ohio. Every time a Republican has lost Ohio, he has actually lost the presidency.
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The the next analog for the democrats is Maryland. Only once has a Democrat been elected to the presidency without moving Maryland. The was the 1948 election, in i beg your pardon Maryland mirrored most of the rest of the Republican northeast in backing cutting board Dewey"s candidacy for the GOP. (Despite what girlfriend may have actually read in the newspapers, Dewey lost.)
In 2016, Maryland will be a lot easier for Hillary Clinton to victory (she leader by an ext than 30 points, according to RealClearPolitics) than Ohio will certainly be because that Donald trump card (he trails through 3).
It also seems unlikely that Trump will reel in a number of the various other top claims that Republicans have relied upon in the past. Brand-new Hampshire? Maybe. Vermont? No. Illinois? Never.
For all of the time we invest considering the red and blue states in the presidential choice process, it"s basic to forget just how recently those designations arose. Georgia is just one of the says that has least consistently voted because that a win Republican -- since it, choose the rest of the Deep South, to be heavily autonomous until after ~ the i of the Civil legal rights Act.
The tricky state on Hillary Clinton"s perform is Florida. Only twice has actually a Democrat won the presidency there is no winning Florida, in 1960 (John Kennedy) and 1992 (a man named invoice Clinton).
In total, the winner that the presidency has actually won Florida in 26 the the 38 elections because 1860. That"s towards the middle of the pack, as much as it goes. The claims that have actually most often voted for the winner that the presidency are:
Clinton will definitely win at least three that those states and is currently leading in the various other four.
The state that"s least crucial for win the presidency, regardless of party? setup aside Alaska and Hawaii (which are still little baby states, relative to U.S. History), it"s Mississippi. More than half the time, the winner of Mississippi (and Georgia, Alabama and also South Dakota) hasn"t won the presidency. 3 of those states, Trump will certainly win; just Georgia is a concern mark.
The traditional caveat applies: A swimming pool of 38 elections isn"t sufficient to do declarative statements around what will and won"t happen. I feel comfortable saying the if Hillary Clinton loses Maryland, she won"t win the presidency. If Donald Trump loser Ohio however wins Florida and also Pennsylvania (for example), he could still win.
See more: How Can Trump Get To 270 - How Trump And Biden Can Each Get To 270
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