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At the united state election held on 8 November 2016, Donald Trump winner the Electoral college by 306 Electoral Votes (EVs), come 232 EVs for Hillary Clinton. While this seems a convincing victory, trumped won four states by 1.2% or less: Florida (29 EVs), Pennsylvania (20 EVs), Wisconsin (10 EVs) and also Michigan (16 EVs). Had actually these states been won by Clinton, she would have won the Electoral college by a 307-231 margin.
The last Electoral college map indigenous ElectoralVote is at the peak of this article. Numbers listed below state two-letter abbreviations space the state’s EVs. Red represents Republicans (Trump), and blue democrats (Clinton).
Dark blue and also red claims were winner by at least 10%, irradiate blue and red claims by 5-9%, and states through a blue or red border by 0-4%. States that were winner by Barack Obama in 2012, however flipped come Trump in 2016 room Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.
Maine is purple as it break-up its EVs, through Trump to win the rural second Congressional District, while Clinton winner the state; hence, Clinton winner 3 Maine EVs, come 1 for Trump. A couple of states must be far better on the map because that Clinton given last results. Thus, Arizona should be white v a red border, Colorado light blue, and also both Texas and Iowa irradiate red.
Clinton won the in its entirety popular poll by 65.84 million votes, come 62.98 million because that Trump, a distinction of 2.86 million. Clinton’s raw vote was down just slightly native Obama’s 65.92 million in 2012, while Trump was over 2 million above Mitt Romney’s vote.
In percentage terms, Clinton winner 48.1%, come Trump’s 46.0%, a 2.1% famous vote win, contrasted with Obama’s 3.9% win over Romney. Libertarian Gary Johnson winner 3.3% and Green Jill Stein 1.1%.
This is the 5th time the popular vote winner has not won the Presidency; the other occasions were 1824, 1876, 1888 and also 2000. Clinton’s popular vote percent margin is the largest for a loser due to the fact that 1876, and the 1876 choice was heavily disputed.
This spreadsheet by cook Political Report analyst David Waserman provides details top top the renowned vote, both nationally and also for each state, including the swing indigenous the 2012 election.
Turnout in ~ this choice was 60.0% of default voters, up from 58.6% in 2012. This seems low, but we space talking about eligible voters, no registered or enrolled voters. Peter Brent says 82% of eligible Australians cast a formal poll at the current Federal election, and also this is under compulsory voting.
At this election, Wisconsin (Trump through 0.8%) was the tipping-point state. Had Clinton winner Michigan (Trump by 0.2%) and Pennsylvania (Trump through 0.7%), she would certainly still have actually lost the Electoral university by 270-268. The discrepancy in between the famous vote and tipping-point state was hence 2.9% in favour the Trump, the biggest it has actually been because 1948.
Education level major reason for well-known vote/Electoral college split
The discrepancy between the famous vote and Electoral College was caused mostly by solid swings to Clinton in the two most populous states, California and Texas, but huge swings to Trump in the midwest. Clinton’s benefit in California and also Texas resulted in zero additional EVs, if Trump’s big gains in the midwest hugely benefited him in the Electoral College, as he won five midwestern says that had previously been winner by Obama, and thus got all those states’ EVs.
Education level to be the biggest factor in explaining the swings, with greater educated voters most likely to swing come Clinton, and also lower educated voter to Trump. The states Trump got had a greater proportion that non-University education whites 보다 nationally. Us analyst Nate Silver shows that education level, no income, explained the swings. Even in counties with an ext black or hispanic voters 보다 whites, the relationship between education level and swing to Trump applied.
In the midwest, the proportion of non-University educated white skin - man is greater than nationally, and there are few Hispanics. Blacks vote heavily for Democrats, yet their turnout was down as Obama was no the candidate. Spain turnout was higher than in 2012, and also this improved Clinton’s place in Texas, Arizona and California, which likewise have numerous university-educated whites. However, nobody of these states flipped.
While spain turnout was up in Florida, trumped compensated by winning non-University educated white skin - man crushingly, and this provided him a 1.2% margin in that state, contrasted with Obama’s 0.9% 2012 margin. So a fairly small swing was enough to flip 29 EVs to Trump.
A critical factor in Trump’s victory was the voters who did not favor either candidate (18% of the full according to leave polls) selected trumped by 47-30 over Clinton. Had actually these voter split fairly evenly, Clinton would have won together her favourable rating surpassed Trump’s by 5 points.
The FBI’s controversial decision come reopen its investigation right into Clinton’s emails 11 days prior to the election probably added to these voters’ choices. Together Trump won the Electoral college by 0.8%, this decision can relatively be blamed because that swinging the choice to Trump.
Why go non-University educated white skin - man desert the Democrats?
Donald Trump was an anti-establishment candidate, while Hillary Clinton had been associated in politics for at the very least the critical 25 years. Return Clinton had some ethical problems, her concerns were minor contrasted with Trump’s regularly blatant misogyny, racism and also outright lies. Had actually the united state political establishment not to be so unpopular, Clinton would have probably winner decisively.
One reason the establishment was unpopular is the affect of money in politics. Numerous voters regarded that establishment politicians were not on your side, yet rather on the next of lobbying groups. Trump card exploited this stress with his drainpipe the Swamp rhetoric.
Another factor for the establishment’s unpopularity is gridlock. In the 2010 midterm elections, republicans gained manage of the US residence by a 242-193 margin, and also have organized it comfortably since. The has because been difficult for Obama and also Congress to agree top top even an easy things, such as elevating the debt limit. This fed right into anti-establishment sentiment since the federal government was no “getting points done”.
Democrats to be deceived through the 2012 departure polls, where Obama won as whole by 4 points, in spite of losing whites 59-39. New York Times analyst Nate Cohn wrote well prior to the election the there to be many an ext white voters 보다 the 2012 exit polls had showed.
As the Democrats thought Obama had won regardless of being crushed v whites, they neglected more populist policies in favour of policies that appealed come inner cities and minorities. The an outcome is shown below: Obama won countless overwhelmingly white counties in the north-east and also midwest that Trump demolished Clinton in.
Credit goes come Trump because that sticking with his right-wing populism when many pundits, including many Republicans, assumed he should have actually moderated to success the election. If Trump had moderated, the uneducated whites may have actually seen him as just another politician, and they would more than likely not have voted for Trump in the same numbers.
Many top top the left think the Bernie Sanders would have actually beaten Trump had actually he been the autonomous nominee. If Sanders’ left-wing populism appealed to some of the very same voters as Trump, Sanders to be a self-described autonomous socialist, and this would have provided Trump much ammunition to paint him together a Communist. In the autonomous primaries, Sanders’ “honeymoon” in Russia, once Russia to be still the USSR, walk not end up being an issue. Trump and his cohorts would have made this a large issue in the general election.
What wake up now
The Electoral College an outcome is not quite final. Candidates in every state appoint slates that potential electors. The statewide winner then has actually their slate appointed as electors. On 19 December, the electors actors their votes.
Past elections have sometimes had actually “faithless” electors who execute not poll for the candidate to whom they room pledged. Many electors space appointed through the party organisation, no the candidates. As countless established republic dislike Trump, the is feasible he will shed a couple of electors, however there is no possibility he will shed 37 or more of his 306 EVs - he requirements only 270 electors because that a majority of the Electoral College.
On 6 January 2017, the Electoral Votes space tabulated in Congress. Top top 20 January in ~ 12 noon us Eastern (4am Melbourne time 21 January), Donald Trump will be inaugurated together the 45th president of the united States.
Elections because that both chambers the the us Congress (the national legislative body) are held every 2 years. When not held concurrently v a Presidential election, this elections are referred to as “midterm” elections. There room 100 Senators, who have six year terms and also represent totality states; one-third that the Senate is elected every two years. Home districts are apportioned ~ above a populace basis, and also the 435 house members serve only two year terms.
Prior to this election, the Republicans hosted a 54-46 majority in the us Senate. Of the 34 Senators up at this election, Republicans held 24 and Democrats 10. This to be a big opportunity for the democracy to make plenty of gains, however they only acquired two seats. The democrats gained brand-new Hampshire and Illinois, and also held Nevada, but they narrowly lost Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and also Missouri. The republic will hold a 52-48 majority in the new Senate.
The Senate is the more powerful chamber, as its consent is compelled for Cabinet-level and judicial appointments. A filibuster can regularly be supplied to block legislation, and can just be get rid of by a 3/5 bulk (60 votes).
With 48 Senators, the Democrats could stall law in the Senate making use of the filibuster. However, the filibuster is part of the Senate’s rules, and also a majority can adjust those rules. The Republicans could abolish the filibuster.
The united state Supreme Court is the highest possible court. Appointment of supreme Court judges requires a filibuster-proof majority. Complying with the fatality of conservative justice Antonin Scalia in February 2016, a supreme Court seat has actually been vacant, and the Court has been split 4-4 left-right. Trump’s nominee will offer the best a 5-4 majority, and also approving this appointment will certainly be a flashpoint in the Senate.
In the House, the republic will organize a 241-194 majority, under from a 247-188 bulk following the 2014 midterm elections. The Republicans winner the 2014 House famous vote by 51.2-45.5, a 5.7% margin. According to David Wasserman, Republicans won the 2016 House well-known vote by 49.1-48.0, a 1.1% margin.
The November 2018 midterm elections are an possibility for democrats to wrest back control that the House and Senate after two years the Trump. They probably need at the very least a 5-point popular vote margin to take it the House.
In the Senate, Democrats are in hazard of walking backwards, together they room defending 25 that the 33 seats up for election in 2018, come 8 Republican defences. Five Democrats increase in 2018 room in says Trump won by twin digit margins, and only one Republican is in a state Clinton won.
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A note on united state swings: swings in the US room the distinction in margin, fairly than the autumn or get in one party’s vote, and also are thus double Australian swings. Because that example, if one party wins a seat 52-48 at one election, then loses it 51-49 in ~ the next election, we would describe it as a 3 point swing, while the united state would define it as a 6 point swing (from to win by 4 to shedding by 2).