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Punxsutawney Phil renders his prediction at Gobbler's Knob ~ above Groundhog day 2020. Feb. 02, 2020. Sean Simmers | ssimmers

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STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. — when Staten Island roots for its residents groundhog chuck on Groundhog Day, the furry weather prognosticator is often compared to his Pennsylvania counterpart, Punxsutawney Phil.

You are watching: How accurate are punxsutawney phil’s groundhog day forecasts?

Legend has it that if a groundhog sees its zero on Feb. 2, winter will certainly last because that six more weeks. Top top Tuesday, Punxsutawney Phil referred to as for an ext winter throughout a ceremony in ~ Gobbler’s Knob.

But just how accurate is he?


According come Stormfax, an independent almanac that tracks Groundhog job predictions dating earlier to 1887, Phil has seen his shadow 106 times through the years. He’s dubbed for an early spring 20 times, and there space nine years not accounted because that due to missing records.


Data from the national Oceanic and Atmospheric management (NOAA) figured out that Phil has actually been correct 50% of the moment over the previous 10 years. However Stormfax claimed his accuracy price drops come 39% as soon as taking his whole forecasting history into consideration.


Last year, Phil correctly predicted very early spring when he did not watch his shadow. The United says saw above-average temperature in both February and also March through the mean contiguous U.S. Temperature in February 2020 being 36.2 degrees — or 2.3 degrees above the 20th century average.


Meanwhile, Staten Island Chuck has a 79% accuracy rate since he started in 1981 — with only one inaccurate forecast in the previous decade. His forecast has actually been tracked end the years by neighborhood youth, dubbed “junior weather predictors,” who inspect how many days over the 6 weeks adhering to Chuck’s forecast are above 40 degrees.


At the finish of the six-week period, if there are more days over 40 degrees, it means we had an early spring. If there are more days below 40, climate we had actually six more weeks of winter.


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