A Biden campaign TV advertisement falsely insurance claims that a government analysis of president Donald Trump’s “planned cuts to social Security” mirrors that “if Trump gets his way, Social protection benefits will certainly run the end in just three years from now.”

The Social defense Administration’s cook actuary analyzed “hypothetical legislation” that would remove the payroll taxation that accumulation Social protection — not a proposal indigenous Trump. The president has said the won’t reduced benefits.

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Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden and others that oppose Trump’s reelection have actually capitalized ~ above confusing statements Trump made in August. He has actually said on multiple occasions that, if reelected, he would look at “ending” or “terminating the payroll tax.”

But White House and also Trump project officials have actually said the president actually desires to forgive a four-month payroll tax holiday that authorized via executive activity last month. Trump card himself has said: “hen I victory the election, i’m going to totally and completely forgive all deferred payroll taxes there is no in any type of way, form or type hurting society Security. The money is going come come from the basic fund.”

Biden, though, has actually repeatedly claimed that Trump has a “plan” that would “bankrupt,” “defund,” or “wipe out” the Social defense program.

In remarks during an AFL-CIO virtual event on Sept. 7, Biden said: “And Trump has actually a setup to gut society Security. If his society Security plan … actually came to be law, the Social security actuary has said the whole Social Security system will it is in bankrupt by mid-2023.”

At the very same time, the Biden project has been running an ad that says: “The cook actuary of the social Security management just released an evaluation of Trump’s planned cuts to social Security. Under Trump’s plan, Social defense would end up being permanently depleted through the center of calendar year 2023. If Trump gets his way, Social protection benefits will certainly run out in simply three year from now.”

Advertising Analytics claims the Biden project has spent over $1.3 million on the 30-second commercial, which has actually aired an ext than 5,500 time in swing states like Michigan and also Arizona because Sept. 3.

The Biden project started to run a 2nd ad ~ above Social protection in an essential electoral claims on Sept. 8. It features the previous vice chairman saying: “For our seniors, Social protection is a sacred obligation, a spiritual promise made. The present president’s threaten to break that promise. He’s suggest to get rid of a taxation that pays for almost half the Social security without any method of making up for that lost revenue.” 

Biden said that in his acceptance speech in ~ the 2020 democratic National Convention. Together we composed then, it’s not clear what trumped would carry out in a second term.

But any kind of permanent transforms to Social security would have to go with Congress, and also the short-term payroll tax forgiveness — which Trump’s management and campaign staff claim he really desires — would not “gut” or “wipe out” the routine that pays retirement and disability benefits.

What has actually Trump Said?

In 2019, almost 90% that the capital for Social defense ($944.5 billion) came from a 12.4% payroll taxation on income up to a details threshold ($137,700 in 2020). That taxes is split equally in between employers and also employees, while self-employed individuals pay the full tax.

In at an early stage August, Trump authorize a memo enabling the deferral the the employee part of the payroll taxation for workers who earn less than $4,000 in taxable wages biweekly. The break from the taxes goes native Sept. 1 come Dec. 31, and also so individuals don’t need to pay ago that deferred amount following year, the memo instructed Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin come “explore avenues, consisting of legislation, to eliminate the responsibility to salary the count deferred pursuant come the implementation of this memorandum.”

That’s the only plainly articulated arrangement related come Social defense retirement benefits put forward through the trump card administration.

But ~ above the same day the signed the memo, and in the days that followed, Trump argued he wanted to go also further — and either cut or finish the payroll tax.

In a push briefing ~ above Aug. 8, trumped said: “If i’m victorious top top November 3rd, I setup to forgive these taxes and also make permanent cuts come the payroll tax. So ns going to make them every permanent.”

In another news conference ~ above Aug. 10, he stated: “I signed directives to give a payroll tax holiday, through the understanding that ~ the election — on the assumption that it would be victorious for an management that’s done a great job — we will certainly be ending that tax. Fine be terminating that tax.”

And top top Aug. 12 he declared: “After i hopefully get elected, we’ll be end the payroll tax. Therefore that will certainly mean all over from 5,000 to even more per family and also also good for enterprise and an excellent for jobs.” He later on added: “We’ll be paying into Social defense through the basic fund. And it works out really nicely.”

Then, in a Sept. 8 interview v CBS12 News in Florida, Trump claimed there might be a payroll tax cut if he wins a 2nd term. The did not cite eliminating the taxes entirely. 

“There’s not a payroll tax cut on your second term agenda?” reporter Jay O’Brien asked. Trump card responded: “Well, we’re looking to execute that. We will execute it second term. We’re spring to execute something currently if we can.”

What Does that Mean?

White House and also Trump project officials have said that Trump doesn’t really mean he would certainly permanently eliminate the tax.

On Aug. 9, at some point after the president said he planned come “make long-term cuts to the payroll tax,” White House financial adviser Larry Kudlow told CNN’s Dana Bash: “When he referred to permanent, ns think what he was saying is the the deferral that the payroll taxation to the finish of the year will certainly be do permanent. It will be forgiven. The taxation is no going away.”

Then, on Aug. 13, the job after Trump said “we’ll be end the payroll tax” if he is reelected, White home Press Secretary Kayleigh McEnany called reporters: “What that was definition yesterday is the he wants permanent forgiveness of the deferral.”

In the Aug. 12 push conference McEnany referenced, Trump also said in ~ one point: “When I victory the election, I’m going to go completely and entirely forgive all deferred payroll taxes there is no in any type of way, shape or form hurting social Security. The money is going come come indigenous the general fund. We’re no going come touch society Security. I claimed from work one the we’re walking to protect Social Security and we’re walking to protect our people.”

And once contacted about Biden’s claims about Trump’s so-called “plan” for Social Security, both the White House and Trump campaign again said buzzpatterson.com trumped was only referring come forgiving the payroll taxes the deferred for the remainder of 2020.

“The president has dubbed on conference to do this deferral permanent,” a White home spokesperson claimed in one email. “If they do not, this activity still effectively permits working american to gain a sizable advance on your pay starting in a month, which is simply when working Americans need it most as we are fighting to finish the COVID-19 pandemic.”

Trump campaign spokesman Zach Parkinson claimed in a statement: “Joe Biden and also his campaign’s scare tactics space a sad effort to distract from his very own record. Chairman Trump and administration officials have repeatedly said he wants to make the payroll tax reduced deferral irreversible to help America’s workers. The President has actually been clear: his payroll tax reduced will have actually ‘zero impact’ top top Social defense or the seniors that rely on the program. The supports transferring money indigenous the government’s general coffers, protecting the program’s to trust Fund.”

How Is Social security Affected?

The Committee because that a Responsible Federal spending plan has estimated that, relying on how numerous employers opt to withhold payroll counting for their eligible employees, up to $100 exchange rate in taxes payments could be delayed. (The deferral is reportedly mandatory for commonwealth workers and members the the military who qualify.)

Whether the executive activity will have an affect on Social security depends ~ above what happens after that Capitol Hill.

If conference doesn’t agree to pardon the withheld taxes, together Trump wants, employees will be required to pay the money earlier in early on 2021, in between January and April. “Because most of these taxes would be repaid later, we calculation a deficit influence of approximately $5 billion,” CRFB said in its evaluation of Trump’s executive actions.

If lawmakers do forgive the deferred payments, the money needed to consist of for the shed tax revenue could either come from social Security’s trust funds or from basic revenues. The an initial option would rate up the insolvency of society Security’s to trust funds a bit.

The Bipartisan policy Center’s wilhelm Hoagland said PolitiFact the if the payroll tax deferral costs $80 billion and also came from the to trust funds, the “would no gut the program,” however would “only influence the date of depletion, perhaps a year or two earlier than expected.” The to trust funds are right now projected to be worn down by 2035. At the point, the yearly tax revenue because that Social protection “would be enough to salary 79 percent of routine cost, decreasing to 73 percent for 2094,” the Social security Board of Trustees stated this year. That assumes conference takes no activity to resolve the shortfall.

As for claims that Trump’s “plan” would “bankrupt” or “deplete” the regime by 2023, that’s based on an Aug. 24 letter from Stephen Goss, the chef actuary for the Social protection Administration.

Goss responded to an Aug. 19 request from four U.S. Senators (three Democrats and one independent) to analyze “hypothetical legislation” the reduces the payroll tax price to 0% and makes no other alters to current law. He wrote:

Goss, Aug. 24: If this theoretical legislation to be enacted, with no alternative source of revenue to replace the remove of payroll taxes on earned revenue paid top top January 1, 2021 and also thereafter, we estimate that DI Trust fund asset to make reservation would become permanently depleted in about the middle of calendar year 2021, through no ability to pay DI services thereafter. We calculation that OASI Trust money reserves would become permanently depleted through the middle of calendar year 2023, through no capacity to pay OASI benefits thereafter.

But Goss stated he to be “not aware that anyone has proposed the hypothetical legislation.”

In addition, the time Trump has mentioned remove the payroll tax, he has likewise said the money come pay services would instead come indigenous the government’s general fund. Goss’ letter said law with such a stipulation would leave Social security “essentially unaffected” — a allude ignored by the Biden campaign ad. 

Goss, Aug. 24: If the theoretical legislation specified that the OASI and DI to trust Funds would be hosted harmless from the reduction in the tax rate paid by employees, employers, and also self-employed people (as was the situation for the short-term payroll tax price reductions of 2010, 2011, and 2012, wherein automatic transfers were mentioned from the General money of the Treasury to the trust funds in the quantities that would have actually been do in the lack of the tax rate reductions), then OASI and DI Trust money income, services paid, and the projected depletion day of the trust money reserves would certainly be basically unaffected by the legislation.

Of course, transferring roughly $1 sunshine from the basic fund yearly to cover the projected price of payment Social defense benefits would boost federal deficits. The Congressional spending plan Office jobs federal deficits of an ext than $1 trillion yearly from budget year 2021 to fiscal year 2030.

And as soon as asked exactly how that would occupational with the already virtually $3 sunshine deficit for fiscal 2020, trump misleadingly claimed “tremendous growth” favor “you haven’t viewed in a lengthy time” can cover social Security’s costs. However, the CBO projects that real gross domestic product will increase by less than 3% each year from 2022 come 2030, and real GDP currently hasn’t get an impressive by an ext than 3% annually due to the fact that Trump took office. 

But the doesn’t typical Trump has actually “planned cuts” that will certainly “bankrupt” social Security, as Biden and also others have actually claimed.

Despite his confound remarks, the White House and also Trump project say the president wants Congress to do it so the employees don’t have to repay any type of deferred taxes following year. If Trump in reality “gets his way,” as among the Biden project ads says, that shed revenue will be made up with various other money indigenous the general fund.

Correction, Sept. 14: ours story originally contained a reference to “execution action” rather of “executive action.”

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