Order indigenous ChaosWhy Hillary Clinton i will not ~ be a international policy hawk as presidentJeremy Shapiro and Richard SokolskyFriday, respectable 12, 2016
Editor's Note:Most think that Hillary Clinton is a “hawk” on foreign policy, and that together president, she would escalate present U.S. Armed forces commitments in the center East and elsewhere. However President Hillary Clinton would certainly not most likely be the uber hawk the so numerous expect, argue Jeremy Shapiro and Richard Sokolsky. This short article originally showed up on Vox.

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Everybody knows Hillary Clinton, and everybody particularly knows her foreign policy views. After all, she has been a presence in national politics for much more than 25 years and has a lengthy record as an initial lady, senator, and also secretary that state.

Most think that Hillary Clinton is a “hawk” on international policy, and also that as president, she would escalate existing U.S. Armed forces commitments in the middle East and elsewhere, dragging America into more military misadventures in assorted far-flung corners the the world.


Jeremy Shapiro

Nonresident senior Fellow - international Policy, facility on the joined States and also Europe, job on global Order and also Strategy


Richard Sokolsky

Senior Associate, Carnegie treasure for global Peace

For instance, the New York Times’ note Landler writes the “her affinity for the equipped forces is rooted in a lifelong belief that the calculated usage of army power is vital to defending nationwide interests, that American treatment does more great than harm.”

Clinton has indeed frequently favored the usage of force. Yet President Hillary Clinton would not most likely be the uber hawk that so numerous expect. First, her record is in fact an ext nuanced 보다 is often appreciated—she has actually just as often pushed for diplomatic options as army ones.

But much more importantly, that is because, as president, she will discover that the usage of force abroad will market precious few opportunities for making a difference, and also will come in ~ a substantial political expense at home.

The case for Hillary the Hawk

Portrayals the Hillary Clinton together super-hawkish on foreign policy typically suggest to a variety of decisions she’s made over the years to support the use military force.

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As first lady in the 1990s, she sustained U.S. Intervention in the former Yugoslavia. Together a senator, she voted for the war in Iraq in 2003. She sustained the troop surge in Afghanistan in 2009. Together secretary that state, she supported military treatment in Libya in 2011 and forceful actions in Syria (for example, the at an early stage arming that the middle opposition and more recently the development of for sure or no-fly zones). Whereby others wavered, she supported the usage of pressure to death Osama bin Laden.

On the project trail, she has supported chairman Barack Obama’s decision to deploy an ext special forces and also intensify wait strikes versus the ISIS. Many of her advisers are prominent advocates of raised use that the military, an especially in Syria.

So it’s straightforward to look at her history and her id in American leadership and exceptionalism and conclude the there will be no remainder for war-weary Americans.

Clinton has been a hawk, but a wise one

But while over there is no doubt the Clinton has regularly supported the usage of force, she simply as frequently supported diplomacy and negotiations as the nation’s first line of defense.

As the Woodrow Wilson Center’s Aaron David Miller noted recently in the Wall Street Journal, Clinton commonly complained around the militarization the U.S. Foreign policy when she was secretary of state and touted the virtues of “smart power” (the idea that all aspects of nationwide power are needed to solve foreign policy problems) and diplomacy in tackling the nation’s many serious national security challenges.

Consistent v this approach, she started the mystery negotiations v Iran in 2012 that eventually led come the Iran nuclear deal. She has likewise supported president Obama’s opened to Cuba. She supported and implemented the reset with Russia that began in 2009.

When China started coming to be aggressive in the south China Sea, she did not reach for armed forces tools, yet rather looked to a regional diplomatic technique that stand in stark comparison to Beijing’s military aggression.

A president Clinton will have few opportunities for army intervention

And indeed, there will arguably be much less need and less limit for she to show her military mettle together president than might have to be the case a pair of year ago. It must be obvious, come paraphrase Woody Allen’s observation around life, the all the choices for the use of pressure to fix a badly damaged Middle east can be divided into the miserable and the horrible.

In Syria, the idea that risking U.S. Boots top top the floor or war with the Russians to support an the opposite that consists largely that Islamist extremists is not most likely to very nice to her any much more than it needs to President Obama.

For fighting ISIS, Clinton appears comfortable through Obama’s template for the usage of armed forces force: the restricted use of armed drones, special operations forces, air strikes, and also efforts to develop local volume for ground operations and stabilization duties.

Clinton has often emphasized that terror cannot be totally defeated ~ above the battlefield. To resolve the evolving risk of transnational Islamic extremism, Clinton asserts, the real payoff lies in improved intelligence and also law enforcement, greater international cooperation, limiting access to weapons, and efforts to protect against radicalization and also terrorist recruitment.

Clinton desires to it is in a domestic president

The most crucial reason the a chairman Hillary Clinton is i can not qualify to have actually a hawkish international policy is that she will no longer be a senator, or the secretary that state, or a presidential candidate. She will be president. And that way that her concerns will be really different.

There is one old adage in politics that where you stand counts on where you sit. And from wherein President Clinton would be sit in the White House, the world—and more importantly, the domestic political context—will look different than that looked from her perch in ~ the State Department.

As secretary that state, she views on matters of war and peace to be shaped to some level by the institutional philosophy of the State Department. The secretary that state go not have to worry around domestic policy or the president’s windy approval rating. As president, though, Clinton will be beholden come the American public and will have countless other priorities past foreign policy that will occupy her attention.

As current presidents have actually learned, military intervention abroad can lug a hefty political price at home. Regardless of the headlines of worldwide disorder, over there is no clamor from the American publicly or the Congress because that a more active military policy, other than from a grasp of charter members that the Washington international policy establishment (or, as Obama’s aide Ben Rhodes described it, the “blob”).

This was generally seen on the project trail in both the Democratic and Republican primaries, when hawkishness arised as a political liability that both Bernie Sanders and Donald trumped profited from. A recent Pew survey, because that example, found that 57 percent of american surveyed desire the U.S. To address its own problems, when letting other countries get along as finest they can. Just 27 percent of respondent felt the the United says is act too tiny to solve human being problems.

Asserting “lost” American management through the use of military pressure in Syria or elsewhere might make the foreign policy establishment and also the editorial board of the Washington article happy. Yet an overwhelming variety of Republicans and also Democrats in Congress as well as the basic public would sour really quickly on prolonged, open-ended interventions that cost billions that dollars and also risk American lives.

Clinton has the smarts to understand that she have the right to only fight and also win so countless political battles as president. Clinton was an inadvertently secretary the state—she had not focused on foreign policy previously, she did not seek the position, and also she did not get the job because of her experience in diplomacy.

And while she took to the job with enthusiasm and also skill, she has always reserved her biggest passion and vision for domestic issues: health care, family members issues, and promoting the legal rights of women and also social justice generally. The is not a coincidence, for example, that of the seven “biggest accomplishments” listed top top her project website, the an initial six are about health care, family members issues, and human rights. (The critical one describes brokering a ceasefire in between Israel and also Hamas.)

She wants to make her mark in residential policy and also she will likely reserve she political resources to do the deals and compromises that will be necessary to advancement her residential policy agenda.

To do otherwise—to allow her and also her administration’s time and also energy obtain taken up by unpopular armed forces engagements—would not just break faith with the steady wing that the party, however could additionally hurt her standing v the public.

Her husband’s management spent lot of its at an early stage political funding recovering from the October 1993 “Black eagle Down” disaster, in i m sorry 18 U.S. Army Rangers were eliminated in Somalia. For Hillary Clinton, gaining bogged down militarily in Syria in ~ the outset of her administration, for example, can so alleviate her politics standing and so occupy she time the she would certainly have little room left to implement her residential agenda.

In the end, Clinton as president will likely continue to defy the brand of hawk or dove and also continue come annoy proponents of both approaches. She may at times be an ext tempted than her predecessor come reach right into the tool kit and also pull out a armed forces instrument to push earlier on enemies and also adversaries.

But favor her predecessor, she will certainly not risk her political standing unless she is encouraged that there is a strong case for how such an intervention will both enhance the case on the ground and also meet through the approval that the American public. In the next 4 years, such cases will be few and much between.

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Note: A previous version of this write-up claimed that Hillary Clinton sustained the Iraq surging in 2007. She go not, and also the sentence was corrected on august 19, 2016.